Season 80 Preview: National League South
The National League South enters Season 80 with a familiar name at the top and plenty of questions underneath. The Wichita Evil Sheep won 93 games last season, reached the World Series, and came within one game of a championship. The Montgomery Mules were solid at 84-78, while Jacksonville and New Orleans finished below .500 and now face the challenge of closing a significant gap.
There is also a major change coming to the division: the National League now has a DH. That could have a particularly interesting impact on this division, where several clubs have legitimate offensive pieces but also carried some weak bats in their lineups last season.
Wichita remains the obvious favorite, but the race for the other playoff spots could be considerably more interesting.
Season 79 Final Standings
| Team | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Wichita Evil Sheep | 93-69 | .574 |
| Montgomery Mules | 84-78 | .519 |
| Jacksonville DEPLORABLES | 75-87 | .463 |
| New Orleans Voodoo | 68-94 | .420 |
Wichita Evil Sheep
Season 79: 93-69
The Evil Sheep enter Season 80 as the unquestioned class of the division. They won 93 games, survived a dramatic NLCS against Kansas City, and then took Fresno to the World Series before falling to the defending champions.
And while the championship ultimately went to Fresno, Wichita demonstrated that it has the roster necessary to win the whole thing. The question for Season 80 isn't whether Wichita is good enough to contend. It is whether the Evil Sheep can get back to the World Series and finish the job this time.
The Offense
Wichita scored 766 runs last season and hit 212 home runs, giving it one of the more dangerous offensive attacks in the National League. The addition of the DH should only increase the team's ability to keep productive bats in the lineup.
Norman Zimmermann remains one of the central pieces. He hit .276/.327/.491 with 28 home runs, 109 RBI and 80 runs in 149 games. He was the team's primary run producer during the regular season and remains one of the most important middle-of-the-order bats in the division.
Henderson Sorrento provided excellent all-around production, hitting .288/.373/.424 with 18 home runs, 74 RBI and 91 runs. His .797 OPS and strong on-base percentage make him an ideal table-setter for the power bats behind him.
Then there is Dave Long.
Long hit .246/.309/.463 with 32 home runs and 87 RBI during the regular season. Those numbers alone make him a major offensive weapon, but his postseason performance turned him into one of the defining figures of Wichita's championship run.
Jared Herzog was the Game 7 hero. He hit 23 home runs with a .872 OPS during the regular season and then delivered the decisive blow in the NLCS finale, launching a go-ahead three-run homer in the eighth inning after Wichita had fallen behind 6-4.
Herzog shouldn't be labeled an "x-factor" based on a small postseason sample, but that Game 7 home run will forever be part of the franchise's history. Wichita needed a hero, and Herzog provided one.
Kennie Romero was another intriguing offensive piece, posting a .265/.417/.453 line with nine home runs in only 66 games. His .870 OPS suggests there is additional offensive upside available if he receives a larger role.
The addition of the DH should also help Wichita maximize its roster depth and potentially find additional at-bats for players who don't need to be on the field defensively every day.
The Pitching Staff
The pitching staff was good enough to carry Wichita through the postseason, and the top of the rotation is impressive.
Orlando Fernandez led the way with a 17-4 record, 3.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 236.1 innings. He struck out 179 hitters and provided exactly what a contender needs from its ace: durability and consistent innings.
Asher Collier went 14-12 with a 4.29 ERA over 203.1 innings, while Babe Dipoto went 7-11 with a 3.56 ERA in 151.2 innings. Harold Lennon added 191.1 innings and 141 strikeouts despite posting a 4.75 ERA.
The bullpen also has some intriguing pieces. Ron Hermida converted 37 saves while posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 53 innings. Louis Benedict had a spectacular 2.36 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 61 innings.
That combination of an innings-eating rotation and a reliable late-inning group gives Wichita one of the safer pitching staffs in the division.
Offseason
Wichita added two Type B free agents: Bingo Osborne from Indianapolis and Ned Halter from Portland. Neither move represents a massive overhaul, but Wichita didn't need one.
The important thing was maintaining the core that reached the World Series.
Season 80 Outlook
Wichita is the team everyone else in the NL South is chasing. The Evil Sheep have a proven offense, a deep pitching staff, postseason experience and the confidence that comes from knowing they were only one series away from a championship.
The new NL DH should make an already dangerous offense even more difficult to navigate.
Key Question: Can Wichita avoid the kind of late-season and postseason drama that nearly ended its championship hopes last year?
Bottom Line: This is a championship-caliber roster. Anything short of another serious playoff run should be considered a disappointment.
Montgomery Mules
Season 79: 84-78
Montgomery finished nine games behind Wichita last season, but the Mules were still a respectable 84-78 and remain the most credible challenger to the Evil Sheep in the division after settling for a wild card birth last season.
The bigger question is whether Montgomery can improve enough to turn a solid regular-season club into a legitimate postseason threat.
The Offense
Montgomery hit .260/.321/.393 last season and scored 699 runs. The offense wasn't spectacular, but there was a strong collection of everyday contributors.
Rod Ritz was one of the team's best overall hitters, batting .290/.357/.435 with 18 home runs, 75 RBI and 95 runs in 150 games.
Bing Heisey provided the team's biggest power impact, hitting 28 home runs with 89 RBI and a .861 OPS. His .506 slugging percentage was easily among the team's best.
Benny Ambriz hit .291 with 66 runs, while Cliff King contributed 15 home runs, 57 RBI and a .751 OPS.
Glendon Davis added 23 home runs and 58 RBI, while Mel Roberts hit 21 home runs with 70 RBI and a .793 OPS.
Unfortunately for Montgomery, Roberts is no longer with the club. He signed with Toronto during the offseason.
That creates an immediate question for a lineup that was already only average in overall production.
The Pitching Staff
Montgomery finished Season 79 in the middle of the pack with a 4.11 team ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
Danny Olivares was the ace of the rotation, finishing 15-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 190.2 innings.
Pablo Fernandez finished with a losing record at 7-10, but was mostly successful with a 3.65 ERA.
The rest of the rotation wasn't quite as good. Jiggs Karns was 13-12, but had a 5.70 ERA. Stu Ball had a 4.12 ERA in 152.0 IP, Rip Kulik had a 4.44 ERA in 81.0 IP, and Shane Lush had a 3.91 ERA in 94.1 IP.
A wildcard could be Macbeth Jodie who was called up late last season and had a 2.29 ERA in six starts.
The bullpen has some good arms as well. James Holmes was their most successful reliever, finishing with a 3.31 ERA in 89.2 innings. Hooks Bell had a 3.99 ERA in 88 innings. Carmen McGee had 36 saves, but his ERA was worse at 4.66.
The pitching gives Montgomery a chance to stay in the race, but some improvements could be needed.
Offseason
The Mules suffered two notable losses. Cecil McNichol left for Norfolk as a Type B free agent, while Mel Roberts signed with Toronto as a Type A.
That's significant because Roberts was one of Montgomery's more productive offensive players last season.
Season 80 Outlook
Montgomery's path to contention is fairly straightforward: the pitching needs to take a step up while the offense finds a way to replace Roberts' production.
The Mules don't necessarily need to become an offensive juggernaut. They simply need to score enough runs to take advantage of what should again be a very good pitching staff.
Key Question: Can Montgomery replace the offense lost in free agency?
Bottom Line: Montgomery has the ability to challenge Wichita, but the margin for error is much smaller than it was a year ago.
Jacksonville DEPLORABLES
Season 79: 75-87
Jacksonville is one of the most fascinating teams in the entire division because the organization appears to be operating on two different timelines.
The big-league payroll is just $28.1M, by far the lowest figure in the division, while the maximum prospect budget is a massive $44.4M. That tells you almost everything you need to know about the organization's current strategy.
Jacksonville is building for the future.
The Offense
Unfortunately, the current major-league offense struggled badly last season. The DEPLORABLES hit just .235/.299/.355 and scored only 611 runs.
Robbie Stinson was the standout, hitting .285/.402/.513 with 19 home runs and a .915 OPS. He was easily one of the team's most productive hitters.
Efren Nieto hit .273/.349/.466 with 23 home runs, 68 RBI and 73 runs, while Roger Sanders contributed 19 home runs and 85 RBI with a .814 OPS.
Trevor Rudolph supplied 32 home runs and 81 RBI despite hitting only .231, making him one of the team's most important power sources.
Josmil Seanez hit .276, while Gene Mayne contributed a .716 OPS.
The problem is that the top performers were surrounded by too many weak offensive seasons. Jacksonville had several regulars below a .600 OPS, and the team simply couldn't generate enough traffic or power consistently.
Rudolph and Mayne are still free agents, so Jacksonville will have to replace their production.
The Pitching Staff
Interestingly, the pitching was considerably better than the record might suggest.
Jacksonville posted a 3.60 team ERA (7th best in the majors) and a 1.22 WHIP,
Ronald Bando threw 231.1 innings and went 12-16 with a 3.93 ERA. Ugueth Gonzalez was even better, posting an 11-8 record with a 3.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Carlos Molina added a 3.50 ERA over 182.1 innings, while Jose Trinidad had a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
The bullpen was quietly excellent. Yamid Arguelles had a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, while Torey Matos posted a 1.83 ERA.
That makes Jacksonville's 75-87 record somewhat surprising. The pitching was good enough to support a winning club; the offense simply wasn't. Things will be a little bit tougher without Bando (signed with Charleston) and Matos (signed with Kansas City). But Jacksonville is building for the future.
Offseason
Jacksonville did not make any major Type A or Type B free-agent moves from the offseason list.
That isn't necessarily a problem given the organization's financial strategy. With up to $44.4M available for prospects, the DEPLORABLES appear far more interested in building the next version of this team than patching holes with expensive veterans.
Season 80 Outlook
The addition of the DH could help Jacksonville immediately by giving the club another opportunity to hide a weak defensive player or get another bat into the lineup. But a league-wide change isn't enough to solve the underlying offensive problems.
Jacksonville needs development. The organization has the financial room to invest heavily in prospects, and that may ultimately be more important than its Season 79 total.
Key Question: Can the DEPLORABLES squeeze enough offense out of the current roster to make their excellent pitching matter?
Bottom Line: Jacksonville is unlikely to challenge Wichita or Montgomery immediately, but the organization may be much more dangerous in a couple of seasons.
New Orleans Voodoo
Season 79: 68-94
New Orleans enters Season 80 looking for a substantial turnaround after finishing 68-94 last season. The Voodoo were 26 games behind Wichita and 16 games behind Montgomery, so there is plenty of work to do.
But there are enough legitimate offensive pieces here to believe the club can improve.
The Offense
New Orleans hit .245/.303/.378 and scored 600 runs last season. The biggest problem was not a lack of individual talent so much as a lack of consistent production throughout the lineup.
Howie Noonan was one of the team's best all-around players, hitting .283/.328/.410 with 13 home runs and 105 runs scored. His 197 hits led the club. He signed with the Iveys in the offseason, so the Voodoo will need a new CF.
Masao Chiba added 26 home runs and 81 RBI, while Giomar Hechavarria hit 21 home runs with 70 RBI.
Rick French hit .271/.343/.432 with 25 home runs and 91 RBI, while Nori Park delivered a strong .272/.316/.485 line with 29 home runs and 89 RBI before hitting free agency
The Voodoo therefore have a legitimate power core. The problem is that too many other regulars produced OPS marks below .700, and the team struggled to turn its home-run production into sustained run scoring.
The new DH could be particularly helpful here. New Orleans has several bats that can provide offensive value but may not necessarily need to occupy a defensive position every day. Edgar Rincon has been waiting 8 years in the minors for his chance to shine with a 0.965 OPS, so he could provide a boost to the lineup and help replace the losses of Noonan and Park.
The Pitching Staff
The pitching staff posted a respectable 3.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP last season. That's not disastrous, but the combination of walks and baserunners put too much pressure on an offense that wasn't scoring enough.
Miguel Vega was the ace, going 14-9 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 224.1 innings. He also struck out an impressive 235 hitters. He remains one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Babe Strausborger posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 173 innings, while Kenneth Christenson had a 2.80 ERA with 160 strikeouts over 167.1 innings.
Those three pitchers give New Orleans a strong foundation at the top of the rotation.
The problem was the back end. Santiago Arguelles went 9-17 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, while Dean Smith went 7-16 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
The bullpen had some bright spots. Max Guardado went 9-8 with a 3.50 ERA over 128.2 innings, while Albert Alvarez recorded a 3.98 ERA.
Offseason
New Orleans made one notable Type B free-agent addition, acquiring Jude Peterson from Columbus.
Peterson hit .247/.320/.430 with 19 home runs and 74 RBI for Columbus last season. That is exactly the kind of middle-of-the-order production the Voodoo need.
Season 80 Outlook
New Orleans has enough pitching at the top and enough power in the lineup to improve significantly from 68 wins.
The problem is that the Voodoo have to find a way to close the enormous gap between their best players and their weakest regulars.
The addition of Peterson is a step in the right direction, and the DH could give the offense another boost.
Key Question: Can New Orleans turn its collection of individual offensive and pitching talent into a consistently productive team?
Bottom Line: A 10-to-15 win improvement is realistic, but the Voodoo still look like a team a year away from serious contention.
The NL South Division Race
1. Wichita Evil Sheep
Wichita is the defending NL champion and has the deepest combination of offense, pitching and postseason experience in the division. The NL DH only makes the lineup more dangerous. The Evil Sheep should be favored to win the division again.
2. Montgomery Mules
Montgomery have a good core of players, but losing Mel Roberts hurts. If the offense holds together, the Mules could remain the most serious threat to Wichita.
3. New Orleans Voodoo
New Orleans has more upside than its 68-win record suggests. Miguel Vega, Babe Strausborger and Kenneth Christenson give the team a legitimate rotation core, while the addition of Jude Peterson could help the offense. A significant improvement is possible, but a playoff berth may still be a year away.
4. Jacksonville DEPLORABLES
Jacksonville's strategy appears to be focused on the future. The ability to have up to a $44.4M maximum prospect budget dwarfs its $28.1M major-league payroll. The current club could surprise if its pitching continues to outperform expectations, but the offense remains a major obstacle.
Players to Watch
- Norman Zimmermann, Wichita — 28 HR, 109 RBI, .819 OPS
- Dave Long, Wichita — 32 HR, 87 RBI and a huge postseason
- Jared Herzog, Wichita — .872 OPS and the unforgettable NLCS Game 7 homer
- Bing Heisey, Montgomery — 28 HR, 89 RBI, .861 OPS
- Jose Trinidad, Montgomery — 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
- Robbie Stinson, Jacksonville — .915 OPS
- Miguel Vega, New Orleans — 14-9, 2.69 ERA, 235 strikeouts
- Nori Park, New Orleans — 29 HR, 89 RBI, .801 OPS
Season 80 Prediction
| Projected Finish | Team | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita Evil Sheep | 98-64 |
| 2 | Montgomery Mules | 86-76 |
| 3 | New Orleans Voodoo | 78-84 |
| 4 | Jacksonville DEPLORABLES | 73-89 |
Final Thoughts
The NL South has a clear favorite but an interesting collection of teams behind it.
Wichita has already proven that it can survive October and reach the World Series. With virtually the same core returning and the new DH potentially making the offense even deeper, the Evil Sheep should be one of the National League's elite teams again.
Montgomery is the obvious challenger, although losing Mel Roberts makes the gap a little wider.
New Orleans is the division's potential wild card. The Voodoo have enough pitching and power to make a substantial jump if the supporting cast performs better.
Jacksonville is playing the long game. The $44.4M prospect budget suggests that the organization is less concerned with winning 80 games in Season 80 than building a team capable of winning much more in the seasons ahead.
For now, however, the division still belongs to Wichita.
Prediction: Wichita Evil Sheep win the NL South.
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