Season 80 Preview: National League East
The National League East enters Season 80 with one established favorite, three teams looking to close the gap, a dramatic ballpark change, significant roster movement, and an entirely new designated hitter rule.
Boston enters as the defending division champion after one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent Mantle history. The Chicago Iveys finished second but were still 17 games behind the Bruisers. New York and Columbus were separated by just two games at the bottom of the standings.
On the surface, Boston appears to have control of the division.
But Season 80 brings enough change to make the race considerably more interesting.
- Boston Bruisers: 91-71
- Chicago Iveys: 74-88
- New York Metros: 73-89
- Columbus Clippers: 71-91
Boston's challenge is proving that its incredible Season 79 turnaround was sustainable. Chicago is attempting to improve through free agency. New York is moving from Citi Field to Yankee Stadium. Columbus enters with an offense that may have more upside than its 71-win record suggests, but a pitching staff that desperately needs improvement.
Boston Bruisers
Season 79 Record: 91-71
Runs Scored: 771
Runs Allowed: 696
Expected Winning Percentage: .548
Season 80 Player Salary: $86.4 million
Season 79 represented one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in recent Mantle history.
After winning just 38 games in Season 78, Boston exploded for 91 victories and captured the NL East championship. That represents an improvement of 53 wins in a single season.
The question entering Season 80 is no longer whether the Bruisers are capable of competing.
They already proved that.
The question is whether they can handle the transition from surprise contender to expected division favorite.
A Deep and Productive Lineup
One of the biggest reasons for Boston's success was the depth of its offense.
Joe Roling was the club's most productive all-around offensive player. In 162 games, Roling hit .280 with 34 home runs, 94 RBI, 127 runs scored, and a .868 OPS. His combination of power and speed was particularly impressive, as he also stole 33 bases.
The Bruisers also received excellent production from several other regulars.
Carson Hendrickson hit 25 home runs and posted an .844 OPS, while Mat Gibson was an excellent contact hitter, batting .313 with an .822 OPS.
Cliff Higgins contributed 19 home runs, 75 RBI, 98 runs scored, and 17 stolen bases, while Julio Cruz hit .299 over a full 162-game season.
The lineup was not dependent upon one player carrying the offense.
That may be the most encouraging aspect of Boston's Season 79 performance.
Dioner Querecuto hit .287 with 16 home runs and 74 RBI. Giomar Pujols added 14 home runs and a .784 OPS. Even players lower in the lineup provided respectable production.
Cla Lennerton provided another major middle-of-the-order presence, hitting 29 home runs and driving in 102 runs. He departed for Charleston via free agency, so Boston will need to replace his production. Early indications are that Delino Garcia will step in at 1B. Garcia is not an offensive powerhouse with a career OPS a little over 0.600, but he will provide some solid defense.
Boston scored 771 runs, and the player statistics suggest that the offensive performance was built on genuine lineup depth rather than one or two extraordinary seasons.
Brian Snelling Was the Ace
While the offense was deep, the biggest individual star on the pitching staff was unquestionably Brian Snelling.
Snelling went 20-7 in 33 starts, throwing 236.1 innings with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in a career best season.
He was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the league last season. We'll see if last season was a flash in the pan or if he is a new man in Boston.
Behind him, Boston had additional rotation support from Ned Benes, who went 16-12 with a 3.78 ERA in 195.1 innings.
Jose Arias won 11 games, although his 4.28 ERA indicates that he was less consistent than the top two starters. Wandy Volquez added 13 victories but posted a 4.34 ERA.
The back end of the rotation was an area where Boston was less dominant. Dee Sandberg went 9-16 with a 4.75 ERA.
This is an important consideration entering Season 80.
Boston has a solid ace. It has a strong No. 2 starter. But continued rotation consistency behind Snelling could determine whether the club remains a 90-win powerhouse.
Can the Bullpen Improve?
The bullpen was solid but not overwhelmingly dominant.
Vladimir Moraga posted a 3.82 ERA over 96.2 innings, while Ronnie Nessy had a 3.51 ERA in 56.1 innings.
Boston's relief staff did its job well enough to support a division championship, but the club could become even more dangerous if it finds additional late-inning consistency.
Season 80 Outlook
Boston enters as the clear favorite.
The lineup is deep. Roling, Hendrickson, Gibson, Higgins, Cruz, and Querecuto all contributed significantly during Season 79.
Snelling gives the Bruisers a legitimate ace capable of carrying the staff.
The biggest question is sustainability.
A 53-win improvement creates enormous expectations. Boston will not surprise anyone this season.
Bottom line: The Bruisers have earned their status as division favorites, but repeating a 91-win season will require another year of strong performances throughout the roster.
Chicago Iveys
Season 79 Record: 74-88
Runs Scored: 673
Runs Allowed: 751
Expected Winning Percentage: .449
Season 80 Player Salary: $90.7 million
Chicago technically finished second in the NL East last season, but there was a massive difference between second place and first.
The Iveys were 17 games behind Boston.
At the same time, they finished just one game ahead of New York and three games ahead of Columbus.
That makes Season 80 especially important for the franchise.
The Iveys need to determine whether they are moving toward Boston or remaining part of the tightly packed group below the division champions.
Alfredo Grace Led the Offense
Alfredo Grace was Chicago's most productive everyday hitter in Season 79.
Grace hit .289 with 28 home runs, 98 RBI, and an .829 OPS over 158 games.
He was a legitimate middle-of-the-order producer and one of the biggest reasons Chicago's offense remained competitive.
Rio Doyle was another important contributor, hitting .280 with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an .806 OPS.
Chicago also received strong performances from several players who may not immediately stand out based solely on traditional counting statistics.
David Watson hit .269 with 18 home runs and an .808 OPS, while Lisalverto Portillo was particularly good at getting on base, finishing with a .361 OBP and 21 HRs.
Several other regulars finished below league-average offensive levels.
Domingo Navarro contributed 20 home runs and 67 RBI but posted a .241 average and .728 OPS, while Renyel Vega hit .219 with a .640 OPS despite appearing in 160 games.
Chico Duran hit .263 with 16 home runs and a .711 OPS He will be hitting for the Coyotes across town this season.
Chicago's offensive ceiling could improve substantially if the club can get more consistent production from the bottom portion of the lineup.
The Starting Rotation Needs More
The Iveys allowed 751 runs last season, and the starting rotation was a significant reason why.
Nicky Vance was arguably the club's most reliable full-season starter, going 10-11 with a 3.89 ERA over 199 innings, but he signed with Texas in the offseason.
Brook Lee threw 224 innings but posted a 4.02 ERA, while Mason Palmer went 13-13 with a 4.27 ERA.
Stu Hatcher struggled to a 4.64 ERA and a 8-15 record and Chicago elected not to re-sign him.
There was some reason for optimism from Ricardo Johnson, who recorded a 2.78 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 55 innings. The challenge is determining whether that performance can translate into a larger role as he was used out of the bullpen due to his limited durability.
Offseason Changes
Chicago was active during the offseason.
The Iveys added P Pedro Melendez (career 4.55 ERA) from Philadelphia, P Darryl Roberts (career 4.74 ERA) from Norfolk, and 1B Angel Baez (.659 OPS last season but career .770 OPS) from Wichita.
The additions suggest Chicago is trying to remain competitive while building for the future.
Season 80 Outlook
The Iveys have enough offensive talent to improve.
Grace and Doyle provide a strong foundation, and the continued development of players such as Watson could increase the lineup's ceiling.
The larger concern is pitching.
Bottom line: Chicago should have an opportunity to improve on 74 wins, but a serious move toward division contention will probably require more from the starting rotation.
New York Metros
Season 79 Record: 73-89
Runs Scored: 649
Runs Allowed: 687
Expected Winning Percentage: .474
Season 80 Player Salary: $103.1 million
No team in the NL East enters Season 80 with a more fascinating combination of circumstances than New York.
The Metros were a 73-win team last season, but their expected winning percentage of .474 was better than their actual .451 mark.
More importantly, New York is moving from Citi Field to Yankee Stadium.
The franchise is going from a pitcher-friendly ballpark to a hitter-friendly environment.
That could fundamentally change the identity of the team.
Doug Langford Provides the Power
Doug Langford was New York's primary power source in Season 79.
Langford hit 33 home runs and drove in 93 runs while posting a .792 OPS.
His batting average was only .250, but his power production was essential for a team that scored the fewest runs in the division.
The move to Yankee Stadium immediately raises an intriguing question.
Can Langford become even more productive in a hitter-friendly environment?
If Yankee Stadium boosts the Metros' power production, Langford could be one of the players most likely to benefit.
Ernie Leonard Was the Best All-Around Hitter
Ernie Leonard was arguably New York's most complete offensive player.
He hit .284 with a .373 OBP and .807 OPS while contributing 15 home runs and 67 RBI.
His ability to get on base gives the Metros a valuable offensive foundation.
New York also received productive performances from players with more limited playing time.
Albert Martinez hit 12 home runs with a .795 OPS in only 63 games.
Jackson Hausmann was even more productive on a rate basis, batting .282 with 11 home runs and an .807 OPS in 73 games.
Those two players provide an interesting source of potential offensive upside entering Season 80.
Felipe Berrios Leaves
The Metros will need to replace Felipe Berrios, who signed with Santa Fe.
Berrios appeared in 157 games and contributed 15 home runs and 74 RBI.
While his .724 OPS was not elite, he was a significant part of New York's everyday lineup.
The Metros did add Max Gil from the Chicago Coyotes, but replacing Berrios' production will remain an important challenge.
The Pitching Was Better Than the Record
New York's pitching staff was arguably the most encouraging aspect of the team's Season 79 performance.
The Metros allowed only 687 runs, the lowest total in the division.
Jaret Medders was the standout.
Over 209.1 innings, Medders posted a 3.22 ERA and an outstanding 1.14 WHIP.
Pablo Andino added 200.2 innings with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
Derek Blake was another useful piece, going 12-7 with a 3.39 ERA while working both as a starter and reliever.
The bullpen had several strong performers.
Bruce Page was excellent in the 9th finishing with 38 saves and a 1.76 ERA.
Erik Pritchett posted a 2.42 ERA over 63.1 innings. Dante Craig was heavily used, appearing in 77 games and throwing 116 innings with a 3.80 ERA and an excellent 1.09 WHIP.
Gregory Harvey recorded a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 60.1 innings, but is a free agent nearing the end of his career.
Those numbers suggest New York has a real foundation on the pitching side.
The Yankee Stadium Challenge
However, the move to Yankee Stadium introduces a major variable.
The Metros' pitchers benefited from a pitcher-friendly home environment at Citi Field.
Now they will pitch half their games in a more favorable environment for hitters.
The same move that could help Langford and the offense could potentially hurt Medders, Andino, and the rest of the pitching staff.
Season 80 may ultimately depend on which effect is greater.
Season 80 Outlook
New York may be the division's biggest wild card.
The offense has room for improvement. The pitching was better than the 73-89 record suggested. And the ballpark change could significantly alter the club's statistical profile.
Bottom line: If the Metros can improve their offense without losing too much pitching effectiveness at Yankee Stadium, they could make a significant jump in the standings.
Columbus Clippers
Season 79 Record: 71-91
Runs Scored: 723
Runs Allowed: 807
Expected Winning Percentage: .448
Season 80 Player Salary: $35.0 million
Columbus finished last in the division, but the Clippers may be one of the most interesting teams in the NL East when examining the underlying statistics.
The offense was not the primary problem.
Columbus scored 723 runs, more than Chicago or New York.
The problem was run prevention.
The Clippers allowed 807 runs, easily the highest total in the division.
Gaylord Helling Was a Star
Gaylord Helling was one of the best hitters in the division when healthy.
In only 119 games, he hit .289 with 34 home runs, 86 RBI, and a .915 OPS.
That level of production was exceptional.
If Helling can remain healthy over a full season, Columbus could have one of the more dangerous hitters in the National League.
Kolten Trajano Provides Enormous Upside
Kolten Trajano was another major offensive bright spot.
Despite playing only 76 games and collecting just 262 at-bats, Trajano hit 22 home runs with a .911 OPS.
His .373 OBP and .538 slugging percentage suggest tremendous offensive upside.
The combination of Helling and Trajano gives Columbus two players capable of producing at an elite level.
Additional Offensive Contributors
Don Tamura appeared in all 162 games, scoring 106 runs while adding 17 home runs and 75 RBI.
Felix Nick provided considerable power with 32 home runs and 94 RBI, although his .220 average and .696 OPS illustrate the inconsistency of his offensive profile.
Phil Stinson added a .354 OBP and stole 74 bases.
Charley Kelly hit .328 with a .414 OBP and a .929 OPS in limited action.
The Clippers also lost Jude Peterson to New Orleans.
Peterson contributed 19 home runs and 74 RBI in 115 games, making him a meaningful departure from the lineup.
The Pitching Problem
While the offense contained numerous bright spots, the pitching staff explains why Columbus won only 71 games.
Ernie Watson led the rotation with 184 innings, but posted a 4.16 ERA.
A.J. Ross struggled badly, going 8-17 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.
Henry Heffner recorded a 5.02 ERA, while Chico Osoria struggled to a 7.19 ERA.
There were some encouraging individual performances.
Karl Anderson was excellent in a hybrid role, going 8-3 with eight saves and a 3.04 ERA over 130.1 innings.
Brett McCartney added 10 saves with a 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Pepe Johnson went 10-2 with a 3.71 ERA over 89.2 innings.
The bullpen and swing roles contained useful pieces.
The rotation was the larger problem.
Season 80 Outlook
Columbus has more offensive potential than a typical 71-win team.
Helling, Trajano, Tamura, Stinson, and Nick give the Clippers multiple players capable of making an impact.
But allowing 807 runs makes the path forward obvious.
The Clippers need pitching.
With only $35.0 million committed to player salaries, Columbus has considerable financial flexibility compared with several teams in the division.
Bottom line: If the Clippers can find meaningful rotation improvement, they could become considerably more competitive. Without it, even a strong offense may not be enough.
The NL East Offseason Picture
The four teams enter Season 80 from very different positions.
Boston is trying to defend a division championship and prove that its remarkable turnaround was sustainable.
Chicago was active in free agency and is attempting to move beyond the middle of the standings.
New York faces perhaps the most dramatic environmental change of any team in the league with its move to Yankee Stadium.
Columbus has offensive upside but must address a pitching staff that allowed more than 800 runs.
Meanwhile, the introduction of the designated hitter in the National League creates another important variable.
Teams with productive hitters who previously lacked a clear defensive position now have an additional opportunity to get those bats into the lineup.
NL East Storylines to Watch
1. Can Boston Do It Again?
Going from 38 wins to 91 wins is remarkable.
Doing it again may be even harder.
The Bruisers have a strong foundation, particularly offensively, and Brian Snelling gives them a solid ace. But they now enter the season with expectations.
2. The Yankee Stadium Experiment
No team has a more fascinating ballpark storyline than New York.
The Metros scored only 649 runs last season but allowed a division-low 687.
Yankee Stadium could help players such as Doug Langford and Ernie Leonard produce more offense.
But it could also make life more difficult for a pitching staff that was the club's greatest strength.
3. Can Chicago's Offseason Additions Make a Difference?
The Iveys have added Pedro Melendez, Angel Baez, and Darryl Roberts.
Chicago was already a team with some offensive talent, led by Alfredo Grace and Rio Doyle.
The key will be determining whether the roster additions can provide enough improvement to close the enormous gap between the Iveys and Boston.
4. Is Columbus Closer Than It Appears?
A 71-91 record usually suggests a rebuilding team.
But Columbus had several outstanding offensive performances.
Gaylord Helling produced like a star. Kolten Trajano was dominant in limited playing time. Phil Stinson was a menace on the basepaths..
The Clippers do not necessarily need to rebuild their entire roster.
They need to prevent runs.
5. The National League Gets the DH
For the first time, the National League will use the designated hitter.
This could particularly benefit teams with offensive depth.
Boston and Columbus both have enough productive hitters that the additional lineup spot could become meaningful. Chicago and New York may also use the DH to provide additional flexibility for players who are more valuable offensively than defensively.
Season 80 NL East Prediction
- Boston Bruisers
- New York Metros
- Chicago Iveys
- Columbus Clippers
Predicted Division Winner: Boston Bruisers
Boston has earned the right to enter Season 80 as the favorite.
The lineup is deeper than any other in the division, and Brian Snelling provides a dominant ace at the top of the rotation.
The Bruisers may not win 91 games again, but there is enough evidence in the individual player statistics to believe that Season 79 was built on more than luck.
The Wild Card: New York
The Metros may have the highest variance of any team in the division.
The pitching staff was already strong, led by Jaret Medders and Pablo Andino.
The offense has potential, particularly with Doug Langford's power and the productive performances from Ernie Leonard, Albert Martinez, and Jackson Hausmann.
Everything changes at Yankee Stadium.
Chicago's Opportunity
The Iveys have enough offensive pieces to improve and have been active during the offseason.
But the starting rotation must improve.
Columbus Has the Most Obvious Problem to Fix
The Clippers have enough offense.
The statistics make that very clear.
But the pitching staff allowed 807 runs.
Until that changes, Columbus will have difficulty moving significantly up the standings.
Final Thoughts
The NL East is a fascinating division because every team enters Season 80 with a completely different central storyline.
Boston is trying to prove its transformation is sustainable.
Chicago is trying to turn an active offseason into meaningful improvement.
New York is moving into a completely different baseball environment.
Columbus is trying to build around a surprisingly interesting collection of offensive talent while fixing its pitching.
Boston enters as the favorite.
But the rest of the division has legitimate reasons to believe Season 80 could look different from Season 79.
The biggest question remains Boston.
Was the 91-win season the beginning of a new era for the Bruisers?
Season 80 will provide the answer.
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