Season 80 Preview: National League North
The National League North enters Season 80 with a clear two-team race at the top—at least on paper. Montreal and Kansas City combined for 186 wins last season and separated themselves from the rest of the division. But the offseason has created some interesting changes, particularly between those two rivals.
Toronto and Milwaukee, meanwhile, enter the season looking to close significant gaps. The Yankdawgs were active in free agency, while Milwaukee added several pieces after a difficult 103-loss season.
Season 79 Final Standings:
- Montreal Expos: 95-67
- Kansas City Royals: 91-71
- Toronto Yankdawgs: 72-90
- Milwaukee Lagers: 59-103
Montreal Expos
Season 79 Record: 95-67
Season 79 Finish: NL North Champions, lost in NLDS
Runs Scored: 741
Runs Allowed: 546
Season 80 Player Salary: $85.2 million
Montreal enters Season 80 as the defending NL North champion, and there is a strong argument that the Expos were even better than their 95 wins suggest. Their expected winning percentage was an outstanding .634, driven primarily by one of the best pitching staffs in the league.
The biggest question entering the offseason was whether Montreal could maintain its roster. The answer was not entirely yes.
The Expos lost several important contributors through free agency, including Ed Hannahan, Nevin Bettis, and Hi Miller. Hannahan and Bettis were particularly significant losses, as both were productive members of Montreal's offense.
The Offense
Montreal's lineup was deeper than its overall run total might initially suggest.
Hannahan was also a major contributor before departing for Charleston. He hit .302 with 32 home runs, 92 RBI, and a .909 OPS in 539 at-bats. Replacing that production will not be easy.
Nevin Bettis, now with Milwaukee, was another important departure. He hit .290 with 22 home runs and a .821 OPS in 128 games.
Fortunately for Montreal, the club still has a number of productive offensive pieces.
Ubaldo Oropesa was one of the most dangerous hitters in Season 79. In 580 at-bats, he hit .288 with 40 home runs, 92 RBI, and a .899 OPS, winning the MVP award in the process. He provides legitimate middle-of-the-order power and remains one of the foundational pieces of the Montreal lineup.
Adys Alonso hit .282 and scored 97 runs while appearing in 147 games. He may not possess the same power ceiling as Oropesa, but his ability to consistently reach base and score runs remains important to the lineup.
Stewart Buford supplied significant power of his own, hitting 33 home runs and driving in 91 runs.
Damaso Servet was particularly productive in limited playing time. He appeared in 82 games and hit .295 with 18 home runs, 53 RBI, and a .955 OPS. If he receives an expanded role, he could become an even bigger part of Montreal's offense.
Angelys Vazquez was another extremely productive player in a smaller sample. In 195 at-bats, he hit .313 with 11 home runs and an excellent .966 OPS.
That type of depth gives Montreal some reason for optimism despite the losses of Hannahan and Bettis.
The Pitching Staff
Pitching was the foundation of Montreal's Season 79 success.
The Expos allowed just 546 runs, by far the best total in the NL North. That dominance was driven by an exceptionally strong starting rotation.
Wilin Inciarte was one of the best pitchers in the entire league. He went 19-5 with a 2.26 ERA in 191.1 innings. He struck out 186 batters and posted an exceptional 0.83 WHIP en route to his 2nd Cy Young award.
Inciarte's combination of wins, strikeouts, and run prevention gives Montreal a legitimate ace.
Howie O'Connor was almost as impressive. He went 17-6 with a 2.48 ERA over 195.2 innings while striking out 152 hitters.
Having two pitchers capable of producing those types of seasons gives Montreal an enormous advantage over most teams.
The rotation also received contributions from Wilkin Cedeno, who went 11-10 with a 3.49 ERA in 175.1 innings, and Wilin Siqueiros, who logged 197 innings with a 3.93 ERA.
Montreal also had useful depth in the pitching staff. Rip Branyan posted a 2.77 ERA in 117 innings while working primarily out of the bullpen. Theodore Roberts finished last season with a 2.57 ERA and 30 saves.
Season 80 Outlook
The losses of Hannahan and Bettis are significant. Montreal's offense will need other players to take on greater responsibility.
But the pitching staff gives the Expos an exceptionally high floor. Inciarte and O'Connor form one of the best one-two combinations in the league, and Montreal's ability to prevent runs was the primary reason the club won 95 games last season.
The question: Can Montreal replace enough of its lost offense to remain ahead of Kansas City?
Bottom line: The Expos remain the team to beat. The division may be closer than last season, but Montreal's pitching gives them the edge entering Season 80.
Kansas City Royals
Season 79 Record: 91-71
Season 79 Finish: Second Place, NL North, lost in NLCS
Runs Scored: 751
Runs Allowed: 639
Season 80 Player Salary: $88.5 million
Kansas City came within four games of Montreal last season and remains the most obvious challenger to the Expos.
The Royals also enter Season 80 with something else to build upon: a postseason run that demonstrated they could compete against the league's best teams.
Their season ultimately ended in a dramatic seven-game NLCS loss to Wichita. Kansas City pushed the Evil Sheep to the limit before Wichita rallied late in Game 7 to complete the series comeback.
The challenge for Kansas City is replacing some important departing talent.
Cookie Suzuki left for Anaheim, Carlos Pena signed with Santa Fe, and Shane Freel departed for the Chicago Coyotes. The Royals did, however, make a major addition by signing Billy Kennedy away from Texas.
The Offense
Kansas City's lineup was one of the better offensive groups in the division during Season 79. The Royals scored 751 runs and had several hitters capable of carrying the offense.
Ebenezer Cuyler was arguably the most dangerous hitter on the roster. He hit .287 with 35 home runs, 93 RBI, and a .922 OPS. The two-time MVP is the driving force in this lineup.
Parker Peavy added another major source of power, hitting 35 home runs with 81 RBI and an .871 OPS.
Those two hitters give Kansas City significant middle-of-the-order power.
Yoshinori Johjima was one of the most consistent hitters on the club. He hit .313 with 33 doubles and an .832 OPS while appearing in 132 games.
Antonio Porter was another important contributor, hitting .291 with 22 home runs and 90 RBI.
Michael Abe appeared in 155 games and hit .287 while scoring 70 runs.
Kansas City also received a productive season from Bing Buck, who hit 18 home runs with a .796 OPS.
The Royals have the type of lineup that can create pressure throughout the batting order. They may not have had one overwhelming superstar season, but they had multiple players capable of producing above-average offense.
The Pitching Staff
Kansas City's pitching staff was strong throughout much of Season 79.
Paulie Terry provided valuable durability, going 13-12 with a 3.05 ERA over 191.2 innings.
Willie Iglesias was even more effective from a run-prevention standpoint. He went 12-9 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 179 innings.
Hank Tulowitzki had one of the best records on the staff, going 14 -3 with a 2.92 ERA.
Arthur Pierre added another quality season, posting a 3.08 ERA in 158 innings. while Seth Sadowski finished with a 3.78 ERA in 157 IP giving him a fairly successful rookie season.
The departure of Cookie Suzuki removes an important arm from the staff. Suzuki went 13-8 with a 3.65 ERA in 160.1 innings last season. New Royal Billy Kennedy went 10-8 with a 4.22 ERA in hitter friendly Texas last season. The Royals will hope the change of scenery helps Kennedy improve on those numbers.
The bullpen will feel the losses of Pena and Freel as Pena was their most used reliever with 98 IP at a 3.98 ERA and Freel was dominant with 43 saves in 46 chances with a 2.06 ERA last season. They currently have Kennedy setup to be the closer. They also brought in Torey Matos who has a career 3.88 ERA, but was especially solid for Jacksonville last season with a 1.83 ERA. They also picked up Deunte Spivey via the Rule 5 draft, so they will be hoping for some immediate returns from him.
The Royals return several pitchers capable of giving them quality innings, and the rotation remains a major strength.
Season 80 Outlook
Kansas City does not have to dramatically improve to win the division. They won 91 games last season and finished only four games behind Montreal.
The question is whether the Royals can offset their departures while maintaining their depth on both sides of the ball.
The addition of Billy Kennedy could prove important, while the continued development and performance of players such as Cuyler, Peavy, Johjima, and Porter will determine whether Kansas City can take the next step.
The question: Can the Royals turn a four-game deficit into a division championship?
Bottom line: Kansas City is firmly in the division race. Montreal deserves the preseason edge, but the gap is small enough that the Royals could absolutely emerge as the NL North champion.
Toronto Yankdawgs
Season 79 Record: 72-90
Season 79 Finish: Third Place, NL North
Runs Scored: 613
Runs Allowed: 708
Season 80 Player Salary: $52.7 million
Toronto enters Season 80 in an interesting position.
The Yankdawgs finished 72-90 last season and were clearly behind Montreal and Kansas City, but the organization did not simply stand still during the offseason.
Toronto added Kirt Pryor and Mel Roberts, two Type A free agents. The Yankdawgs also have the lowest player salary commitment in the division at just $52.7 million while maintaining the largest potential prospect budget in the division at up to $35.5 million.
That creates an intriguing combination of current flexibility and future potential.
The Offense
Toronto's offense struggled significantly last season, scoring only 613 runs. The team finished with a .684 OPS, making run production a major area of concern.
Paul Adams was one of the clear offensive bright spots. He appeared in 150 games and hit .294 with 27 home runs, 62 RBI, and an .872 OPS.
Adams gives Toronto a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.
Willie Cespedes also supplied power, hitting 23 home runs with a .806 OPS.
Alfonso Hollands contributed 25 home runs and 73 RBI in a solid rookie season.
The problem for Toronto was that there were not enough productive seasons surrounding its top hitters.
Sal Gryboski hit .259 with 16 home runs and a .757 OPS, while Kyle Winston provided a .754 OPS in a part-time role although he was traded to the Coyotes this offseason.
Beyond that, the offense struggled to consistently create scoring opportunities.
The addition of Kirt Pryor could be particularly important as he was one of the best hitters in baseball last season with 37 HRs, 138 RBIs, and a .967 OPS. Mel Roberts should also contribute at Catcher, coming off a down year for his standards with a 0.793 OPS.
Toronto is excited about rookie 3B David Purcell. The 21 year old former #4 pick in the draft is on the ML roster to start the season.
The new additions will help, and Toronto needs additional impact production if it hopes to significantly close the gap in the division.
The Pitching Staff
Toronto's rotation had some legitimate strengths.
Ken Gibson was the standout. He went 12-8 with a 2.98 ERA over 199 innings and struck out 206 batters.
That is the profile of a pitcher capable of leading a competitive rotation.
Fred Grace logged 221.2 innings and struck out 174 hitters while posting a 3.33 ERA.
Vicente Valdes provided another large workload, throwing 218.2 innings. However, Valdes has since departed for Cuba, making his replacement a major question entering Season 80.
Jose Solano went 13-12 but posted a 4.60 ERA, while the rest of the staff struggled to consistently prevent runs.
The departure of Valdes means Toronto will need someone to absorb a substantial number of innings. Toronto is calling upon rookie Eddie Hernandez to fill those innings. The Italian former IFA has a career 4.29 ERA in the minors, so we will see how he transitions to the majors.
Season 80 Outlook
The Yankdawgs appear to be a team in transition.
The additions of Pryor and Mel Roberts indicate that Toronto is attempting to improve rather than simply waiting for the future. The team's large prospect budget also gives the organization the ability to continue developing its pipeline.
However, the gap between 72 wins and the 90-plus-win pace of Montreal and Kansas City remains substantial.
The question: Can Toronto improve its offense enough to become a factor in the division race?
Bottom line: Toronto looks improved, but the top two teams remain difficult targets. The more realistic immediate goal may be pushing toward .500 and putting pressure on the division leaders.
Milwaukee Lagers
Season 79 Record: 59-103
Season 79 Finish: Fourth Place, NL North
Runs Scored: 654
Runs Allowed: 873
Season 80 Player Salary: $52.6 million
Milwaukee enters Season 80 with the biggest challenge in the division.
The Lagers lost 103 games last season and finished 36 games behind Montreal. Their expected winning percentage of .366 closely matched their actual performance, suggesting that this was not simply a team victimized by bad luck.
The offseason, however, brought meaningful additions.
Milwaukee signed Nevin Bettis, a Type A free agent from Montreal, as well as Hi Miller, another former Expo.
Those moves do not instantly transform the Lagers into contenders, but they represent an attempt to bring proven production into the organization.
The Offense
Milwaukee's biggest offensive strength last season was power.
Alfonso Mercedes was one of the best offensive players in the entire division. He appeared in all 162 games and hit .278 with an incredible 54 home runs and 136 RBI.
Mercedes posted a .939 OPS and was unquestionably the centerpiece of Milwaukee's offense.
Wilsen Smith provided another major source of power, hitting 44 home runs with a .908 OPS.
Having two players combine for 98 home runs gives Milwaukee something many rebuilding teams lack: legitimate star-level power.
Del Quintanilla added 28 home runs and 86 RBI.
The Lagers also received useful production from Yeico Cruz, who hit .283 in 151 games.
The problem was overall depth. Milwaukee's team batting average was just .244, and the club needed more consistent production around its biggest power hitters.
The addition of Bettis could help address that issue. He hit .290 with 22 home runs and a .821 OPS for Montreal last season.
That is a significant offensive addition to a lineup already featuring Mercedes and Smith.
The Pitching Staff
Pitching was Milwaukee's largest weakness last season.
The Lagers allowed 873 runs, the worst total in the NL North.
Marc Davidson posted the best ERA among Milwaukee's primary starters at 3.79, although his 7-14 record illustrates how difficult the overall situation was. He is now with Anaheim after departing as a free agent.
Frank Anderson provided durability, throwing 204.2 innings, but he posted a 4.97 ERA.
Matthew Cedeno threw 170.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA, while Kenny West posted a 5.11 ERA. Both hit the free agent market after the season ended.
Thus there will be some new faces in the rotation. Hi Miller was mostly successful in Columbus but struggled the last few seasons in Montreal. He has a career 3.70 ERA. Ryan King (career 4.33 ERA) and Vladimir De Los Santos (career 3.91 ERA) were signed as free agents this offseason, and Milwaukee made a last minute trade with Montreal to bring in Emmanuel Castilla (career 4.62). They should all help improve the floor of the Lagers pitching rotation at the very least.
Milwaukee had some useful relief contributions, including Elvis George, who posted a 3.80 ERA over 111.1 innings.
But the overall staff simply allowed too many runs. The Lagers defense was in the bottom third of the league in most major categories. If they can get more + plays and reduce the - plays, that should provide some additional help.
That remains the central issue entering Season 80.
Season 80 Outlook
Milwaukee's offense may actually be capable of becoming interesting.
Mercedes and Smith provide elite power, while the addition of Bettis gives the Lagers another proven offensive contributor.
The problem is whether the pitching staff can improve enough to support that offense.
A team can overcome an average pitching staff with elite offense. It is much more difficult to overcome a staff that consistently allows close to 900 runs.
The question: Can Milwaukee find enough pitching improvement to take advantage of its impressive power hitters?
Bottom line: The Lagers should be more interesting offensively, but the pitching staff will determine whether the improvement translates into a significantly better record. Their goal will just be to raise the floor this ceiling and see what they have to build upon.
The Division Race
The NL North appears to have a clear hierarchy entering Season 80.
Montreal and Kansas City are the established contenders.
The Expos won the division last season behind dominant pitching, while Kansas City finished just four games back and demonstrated during the postseason that it could compete with elite competition.
The biggest storyline may actually be the offseason movement between the two organizations.
Montreal lost Hannahan, Bettis, and Miller, while Kansas City lost Suzuki and Pena. Both clubs have enough returning talent to remain contenders, but both also enter Season 80 with questions that did not exist a year ago.
Toronto is attempting to close the gap through free agency and future development, while Milwaukee is trying to build around one of the most powerful offensive combinations in the league.
NL North Players to Watch
Wilin Inciarte, Montreal
A 19-5 record, 2.26 ERA, 186 strikeouts, and 0.83 WHIP made Inciarte one of the dominant pitchers in the division last season. He is the foundation of Montreal's championship hopes.
Ubaldo Oropesa, Montreal
After hitting 40 home runs and posting an .899 OPS, Oropesa becomes even more important following the departures of Hannahan and Bettis.
Ebenezer Cuyler, Kansas City
Cuyler hit 35 home runs with 93 RBI and a .922 OPS. Kansas City will need another big season from him if the Royals are going to overtake Montreal.
Parker Peavy, Kansas City
Peavy matched Cuyler with 35 home runs and gives the Royals another major source of middle-of-the-order power.
Paul Adams, Toronto
Adams hit .294 with 27 home runs and an .872 OPS. Toronto needs him to remain one of its offensive anchors.
Alfonso Mercedes, Milwaukee
Fifty-four home runs and 136 RBI speak for themselves. Mercedes was one of the most productive offensive players in the league and gives Milwaukee a legitimate superstar.
Wilsen Smith, Milwaukee
Smith added another 44 home runs. The Mercedes-Smith combination gives Milwaukee enormous power potential.
Season 80 NL North Prediction
- Montreal Expos
- Kansas City Royals
- Toronto Yankdawgs
- Milwaukee Lagers
Predicted Division Winner: Montreal Expos
Montreal's pitching gives the Expos the narrow preseason advantage. Losing Ed Hannahan and Nevin Bettis will make the offense more difficult to project, but a rotation led by Wilin Inciarte and Howie O'Connor is an enormous advantage.
Kansas City is the biggest threat. The Royals won 91 games last season, have a balanced lineup, and possess enough pitching depth to challenge Montreal throughout the season.
Toronto is the division's wild card. The Yankdawgs have taken steps to improve and possess financial flexibility and a strong prospect budget. A jump toward contention is possible, although the gap remains significant.
Milwaukee has the longest climb. The Lagers have genuine star power in their lineup, but major improvement from the pitching staff will be required to escape the bottom of the division.
Final Thoughts
The NL North may be one of the more straightforward division races entering Season 80, but that does not mean it lacks intrigue.
Montreal enters as the favorite, but Kansas City is close enough to make this a legitimate race. The Royals have already proven they can win at a high level, and the difference between first and second last season was only four games.
Behind them, Toronto is trying to take a step forward, while Milwaukee is attempting to build a more competitive team around one of the most dangerous power combinations in Hardball Dynasty.
The race for Season 80 begins with Montreal and Kansas City. The question is whether anyone else can force their way into the conversation.
No comments:
Post a Comment