Season 80 NL West Preview

Season 80 Preview: National League West

If there was one division in Season 79 where the top and bottom were separated by a canyon, it was the National League West.

The Vancouver Fighting Skeletons were one of the most dominant regular-season teams in Mantle, finishing 107-55 with an incredible +254 run differential. Seattle finished 27 games behind them, while Boise and Portland each finished 32 games back.

Season 80, however, brings some intriguing changes. Boise is now the Honolulu Surfriders, Seattle added Rodrigo Troncoso, and the National League will use the designated hitter for the first time. Perhaps most importantly, Honolulu will move from Boise's fairly neutral ballpark into a more pitcher-friendly environment.

That could make the race behind Vancouver considerably more interesting.

Season 79 Final Standings

Team	W-L	PCT	RS	RA	Run Diff.
Vancouver Fighting Skeletons	107-55	.660	832	578	+254
Seattle Run	80-82	.494	540	565	-25
Boise Renegades	75-87	.463	723	774	-51
Portland Lastplace	75-87	.463	592	700	-108

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Vancouver Fighting Skeletons

Season 79: 107-55

Player Salaries: $91.5M
Coach Salaries: $9.0M

Let's get the obvious out of the way first: Vancouver is really, really good.

The Fighting Skeletons didn't merely win 107 games. They did it while producing a +254 run differential, scoring 832 runs and allowing only 578. Their .663 expected winning percentage was almost exactly in line with their actual .660 mark.

There was no obvious statistical smoke and mirrors here. Vancouver was simply better than almost everybody.

Their season ended in disappointment, as they fell to Kansas City in the NLDS 3 games to 2. However, 5's have been wild for Vancouver lately having won the World Series in Season 70 and Season 75. They are hoping Season 80 will bring a similar return to glory.

An Offense Loaded With Production

One of the most impressive aspects of Vancouver's offense was its depth. The club received significant production from several different players rather than relying on one superstar.

Victor Guerrero was perhaps the most impressive all-around offensive performer. In only 130 games, Guerrero hit .325/.389/.535 with 23 home runs, 67 RBI and 98 runs scored. His .925 OPS was the best among Vancouver's regular players. The 24-year old should be a centerpiece in Vancouver for a long time.

Then there was Juan Javier, who was outstanding in a different way. Javier hit .316 with a .424 OBP and .515 SLG, producing a .938 OPS in 107 games. He also drew 76 walks in only 412 at-bats. He is getting up there in age, but still able to produce great OBP seasons.

Rosell Ramirez supplied the big power, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 114 runs. Richard Kata added 30 homers and 101 RBI, while Jorge Navarro hit 29 homers and scored 90 runs.

And then there was Charley Twitchell, who hit .298/.368/.495 with 15 home runs in just 289 at-bats. He and Javier provided excellent production as the catching tandem last season.

Put all of that together and it's easy to understand how Vancouver scored 832 runs.

The Pitching Was Just As Good

Vancouver's pitching staff may actually have been the more impressive half of the team.

Louie Manuel was outstanding, going 20-7 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 237.1 innings. He struck out 205 batters while holding opponents to a .207 average. Unsurprisingly he took home Rookie of the Year honors with that performance.

Danry Cabral was nearly as effective, posting a 2.25 ERA over 228 innings. He allowed a .239 opponent average and struck out 166.

Rougned Javier added 171 innings with a 2.63 ERA, while Tanyon Cohen was a dominant weapon out of the bullpen. Cohen posted a 2.08 ERA in 73.2 innings and struck out 65.

The bullpen also received strong work from Johnny O'Connor, who posted a 2.83 ERA in 101.2 innings.

This wasn't a team that simply outslugged people. Vancouver could beat you in virtually every way.

Season 80 Outlook

The biggest question isn't whether Vancouver can win the NL West. It's whether the Skeletons can finally translate their regular-season dominance into a championship.

With $91.5M committed to player salaries and another $20M available for prospects, the organization has the financial foundation to remain competitive without sacrificing the future.

The arrival of the DH should only make an already deep offense more flexible.

Key Players: Victor Guerrero, Juan Javier, Rosell Ramirez, Louie Manuel, Danry Cabral and Tanyon Cohen.

Best Case: Another 100-win season and a serious World Series run.

Worst Case: Some regression from 107 wins, followed by another deep playoff appearance.

Bottom Line: Vancouver is the clear favorite until somebody knocks them off.

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Seattle Run

Season 79: 80-82

Player Salaries: $97.2M
Coach Salaries: $11.9M

Seattle is probably the most intriguing team in the division after Vancouver.

The Run finished just 80-82, but their underlying profile wasn't terrible. Seattle scored only 540 runs, yet allowed just 565. That means the Run were much closer to being a respectable team than their .494 record might suggest.

The Offensive Problem

Seattle's biggest problem was obvious: the offense didn't score enough.

Matt Crocker led the club with 16 home runs and drove in 73 runs, but hit only .248/.332/.369.

Pat Hayashi produced a .332 OBP but only a .327 SLG, while Walter Loe provided some speed with 22 stolen bases but posted a .328 OBP. The tandem were also excellent defensive, providing a Gold Glove winner on both sides of the infield.

Andres Diaz hit .241/.303/.349 with only eight home runs.

The lack of power and extra-base production was a major reason Seattle scored only 540 runs.

That is where the new DH could become important. Seattle now has another lineup slot that can be used to inject offense into the lineup without worrying about putting a pitcher in the batting order.

The Pitching Staff Gives Seattle Hope

Seattle's pitching was considerably better than its offense.

Bill Valentin was excellent, going 11-7 with a 2.19 ERA over 189.1 innings. He allowed only 118 hits and posted a remarkable .178 opponent batting average.

Christopher Skinner also gave Seattle a quality season, going 13-8 with a 2.54 ERA over 223.2 innings.

Bartolo Romero contributed 160 innings with a 3.26 ERA, while Harold Richardson threw 188 innings and struck out 174 with a 3.35 ERA.

Zip Sutton was their 5th best SP by ERA, but he still managed to put together a 3.81 ERA.

Wayne Lambo provided excellent work on the back end, picking up 48 saves with a 3.44 ERA winning Fireman of the Year last season. In between, Peter Singleton (91.2 IP, 3.24 ERA) and Don Negrin (78 IP, 3.00 ERA) will great at getting the ball to the 9th.

That is a pitching staff capable of supporting a winning team.

The Offseason Additions

Seattle added a player this offseason that five seasons ago would have been a massive move in Dana Robinson. The 3x MVP and 11x Silver Slugger isn't the player he once was, but Robinson should be able to help provide some offense from the DH spot coming off a season where he finished with a 1.010 OPS.

Seattle also added Rodrigo Troncoso from Texas as a Type B free agent.

That isn't necessarily the type of splashy acquisition that gets headlines in the offseason, but it fits Seattle's needs. This team doesn't need to completely rebuild its pitching staff. It needs to find ways to turn more of its low-scoring games into victories.

Season 80 Outlook

Seattle could be the biggest sleeper in the division.

If the Run can add even 50-75 runs to last year's offensive total without significantly sacrificing their run prevention, they could move from 80 wins toward the upper 80s.

Key Players: Bill Valentin, Christopher Skinner, Harold Richardson, Wayne Lambo and Matt Crocker.

Best Case: An improved offense pushes Seattle into the wild-card race.

Worst Case: The bats remain stagnant and the Run once again hover around .500.

Bottom Line: Seattle is much more dangerous than last year's record suggests.

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Honolulu Surfriders

Season 79: Boise Renegades, 75-87

Player Salaries: $72.4M
Coach Salaries: $12.6M

The former Boise Renegades enter Season 80 with perhaps the most fascinating story in the NL West.

The franchise has a new name and a new home, but not a new owner. More importantly, the move from Boise to Honolulu changes the baseball environment.

Boise was a slightly hitter-leaning ballpark. Honolulu is pitcher-friendly.

Boise has a park factor of 1.070 while Honolulu has a park factor of 0.956, taking away some balls that would have been HRs in left field. That could have a substantial impact on a roster that scored 723 runs last season but allowed 774.

There Is Plenty of Offensive Talent

The former Renegades were not a bad offensive team.

Dana Robinson was spectacular, hitting .335/.397/.613 with 36 home runs and 118 RBI. Losing him in free agency will hurt a little as the future hall of famer is declining in power, but can still be productive.

Kyle Anderson also had an excellent season, hitting .308/.383/.540 with 21 home runs, 79 RBI, 90 runs and 34 stolen bases.

Dennis Chamberlain finished his rookie season with a .726 OPS, and Honolulu is hoping he can get a bump in production in year 2.

Yordano Lindor supplied 15 home runs despite hitting only .239.

Nomar Hoying added 15 homers and 37 stolen bases, while Lawrence Jones hit 24 HRs with a .796 OPS. Then came the big offseason trade.

Honolulu traded Hoying and Jones to Indianapolis for William Yoon and a prospect. Yoon should provide some much needed ability to get on-base with a lifetime .364 OBP in the majors.

There is enough talent here to believe Honolulu can remain productive even in a less favorable offensive environment.

But the Pitching Needs Help

This was the weakness in Boise.

The club allowed 774 runs, nearly 200 more than Vancouver.

Malcolm Miles was one of the better performers, going 14-7 with a 3.23 ERA over 167 innings.

Charles Kuttler posted a 3.41 ERA over 177 innings, but Marc Garland and Joe Maxwell both finished with ERAs near or above 4.00.

The bigger problem was the bullpen, as they didn't have anyone besides Fritz Gilbert (3.59 ERA in 72.2 IP) or Polin Grandal (3.72 ERA in 96.2 IP) to consistently move the ball to the 9th without giving up runs. Eli Canderlaria was pretty good in a closer role picking up 15 saves with a 3.23 ERA as a midseason call up, so I would expect him to have a bigger role this season.

Gilbert retired this offseason, so Honolulu signed veteran Riccio Mesa from Portland coming off a 3.38 ERA last season, as well as minor league free agent David Andrelczyk from Seattle.

The move to Honolulu could help here. A pitcher-friendly environment won't suddenly make a mediocre pitcher an ace, but it could reduce the damage caused by home runs and extra-base hits.

The Ballpark Experiment

This may be the most interesting question surrounding the Surfriders.

What happens when a team that scored 723 runs moves into a park designed to suppress offense?

Anderson and Yoon should be able to produce anywhere. But the secondary hitters may see their home numbers change significantly.

On the other hand, the pitching staff could benefit from exactly the same environmental shift. With HRs being more neutral to RF, it will be interesting to see if Honolulu tries to add any lefty pull hitters that won't have HRs taken away in LF.

Season 80 Outlook

Honolulu is the division's biggest wild card.

The franchise has a strong $26.5M prospect budget, one of the highest in the league, while only carrying $72.4M in player salaries. That gives the organization significant financial flexibility.

Key Players: Kyle Anderson, William Yoon, Dennis Chamberlain, Malcolm Miles and Charles Kuttler.

Best Case: The pitching improves dramatically in Honolulu and the Surfriders challenge for 85-plus wins.

Worst Case: The offense loses too much from the park change and the pitching doesn't improve enough.

Bottom Line: Honolulu could be much better—or much worse—than its predecessor's 75-87 record.

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Portland Lastplace

Season 79: 75-87

Player Salaries: $49.1M
Coach Salaries: $9.9M

Portland finished with the same record as Boise, but the underlying numbers were considerably less encouraging.

The Lastplace scored only 592 runs and allowed 700, resulting in a -108 run differential.

The Offense Needs More Consistency

Willis Osting was one of Portland's better offensive performers, hitting .258/.327/.456 with 27 home runs and 67 RBI.

Justin Livesay supplied 31 home runs, although his .211 batting average limited the overall value of that power.

Howie Fitzgerald also struggled, hitting just .205/.264/.346 despite appearing in 157 games.

Jarrett Franco finished with a .250/.339/.370 slash line in 476 ABs.

Tex Collier was productive a .766 OPS in 470 ABs, but is a free agent now. No one else on the roster had an OPS above .700 last season.

Those numbers help explain why Portland scored only 592 runs.

The DH gives Portland another opportunity to put an offensive player into the lineup, but the team needs more than one additional bat to solve its problems.

Pitching Problems

The pitching staff wasn't strong enough to compensate for the offense.

Mel Wilkinson threw 242 innings but finished 10-19 with a 3.57 ERA. Darrell McNeil added 202 innings with a 3.92 ERA.

Meanwhile, Chadd Liefer posted a 3.99 ERA over 191.2 innings and has since departed for Minnesota as a Type B free agent.

They are hoping that rookie Joe Murphy can bolster their rotation. Murphy was the 14th pick in the Season 76 draft, but has a career 4.05 ERA in the minors.

There is one returning bright spot in the bullpen: Henderson Edgin recorded 35 saves and posted a 1.29 ERA in 69.2 innings. Unfortunately, Portland lost Gail Neill (3.01 ERA in 107.2 IP) and Riccio Mesa (3.38 ERA in 69.1 IP) to free agency.

21 year old rookie Steve Lindblom will be called on to be a key part of the bullpen.  The former 3rd overall pick has been dynamite in the minors with a career 2.53 ERA.

Season 80 Outlook

Portland has the lowest player payroll in the division at $49.1M, but also has $20.0M available for prospects.

That could be a sign that the organization is better positioned for a longer-term rebuild than an immediate push toward contention.

Key Players: Willis Osting, Justin Livesay, Henderson Edgin, Steve Lindblom, Mel Wilkinson and Darrell McNeil.

Best Case: Young players emerge and Portland climbs toward .500.

Worst Case: The offense and pitching both remain below average and Portland falls further behind.

Bottom Line: Portland has the most work to do in the division.

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Players Who Could Define the NL West

Victor Guerrero, Vancouver
A .325/.389/.535 season makes Guerrero one of the premier offensive players in the division. If he gets a full 162-game workload, his production could be enormous.

Juan Javier, Vancouver
His .424 OBP jumps off the page. Javier's combination of patience and production gives Vancouver another extremely difficult out.

Rosell Ramirez, Vancouver
Forty-one home runs and 114 RBI make Ramirez one of the division's premier run producers.

Louie Manuel, Vancouver
A 2.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 205 strikeouts over 237.1 innings is the profile of a legitimate ace.

Bill Valentin, Seattle
His .178 opponent batting average was remarkable. Seattle needs another season like this from Valentin.

Kyle Anderson, Honolulu
A .308 average, .383 OBP, 21 homers and 34 steals makes Anderson one of the most complete players on the Surfriders roster.

Henderson Edgin, Portland
With 35 saves and a 1.29 ERA, Edgin was one of the few Portland players who performed at an elite level last season.

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The Biggest Storylines

Can Anyone Challenge Vancouver?

The Fighting Skeletons won 107 games last season and had a +254 run differential. The rest of the division combined for 230 runs of negative run differential.

That is an enormous gap.

Seattle appears to have the best chance to close it, but Honolulu could be the wild card.

What Will Honolulu Look Like?

The Boise-to-Honolulu move isn't simply a change of address. The Surfriders are going from a hitter-friendly park to a pitcher-friendly park.

The first few months of Season 80 should provide an excellent indication of how much that change affects the club.

The DH Arrives

The National League will use the designated hitter for the first time in Season 80.

That gives all four teams another offensive roster spot and could be particularly valuable for clubs such as Seattle and Portland, where additional offense is desperately needed.

Seattle's Low-Scoring Puzzle

Seattle allowed only 565 runs but scored just 540.

That is a team begging for offensive improvement. The pitching staff is good enough to keep the Run competitive. The question is whether the lineup can finally provide enough support.

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Season 80 NL West Prediction

Projected Finish	Team	Projected Record
1	Vancouver Fighting Skeletons	101-61
2	Seattle Run	85-77
3	Honolulu Surfriders	80-82
4	Portland Lastplace	70-92

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Final Word

The NL West enters Season 80 with a familiar favorite and three teams trying to figure out how to close an enormous gap.

Vancouver has the best combination of offense, pitching, depth and organizational flexibility. Victor Guerrero, Juan Javier, Rosell Ramirez and Jorge Navarro give the lineup tremendous depth, while Louie Manuel, Danry Cabral, Rougned Javier and Tanyon Cohen give the pitching staff a foundation few teams can match.

Seattle may be the most logical challenger. The Run's 80-82 record doesn't tell the whole story. A pitching staff featuring Bill Valentin, Christopher Skinner and Harold Richardson kept Seattle in games all season. If Matt Crocker and the rest of the offense can take a step forward, Seattle could become a legitimate wild-card contender.

Honolulu is the unknown. William Yoon and Kyle Anderson give the Surfriders legitimate offensive stars, but moving from Boise's slightly more hitter-friendly environment to Honolulu's pitcher-friendly park could change the team's statistical profile. If the pitching benefits more than the offense suffers, Honolulu could surprise.

Portland faces the longest climb. Willis Osting and Justin Livesay provide some power, while Henderson Edgin anchors the bullpen, but the team needs improvement across the roster and needs it rookies to step up.

And then there is the new DH, which adds another wrinkle to the National League race.

For everyone else, however, the target remains obvious.

Vancouver is the team to beat.

Season 80 Prediction: Vancouver Fighting Skeletons win the NL West.