Season 80 AL South Preview

 

AL SOUTH PREVIEW: A WIDE-OPEN RACE WITH FOUR VERY DIFFERENT TEAMS

The AL South may not have featured a 100-win powerhouse in Season 79, but it was one of the more competitive divisions in the league. Austin emerged with the division title at 86-76, followed closely by Santa Fe at 83-79 and Texas at 82-80.

The records tell an important story: just four games separated first place from third place.

That makes this one of the divisions most likely to change dramatically in Season 80.

Austin enters as the defending division champion, but the Celtics had a run differential that suggested they were closer to an average team than their record indicated. Santa Fe was aggressive during free agency, adding three Type A players to an already competitive roster. Texas narrowly missed the postseason picture despite a potent offense and has the division's strongest recent track record of top-end starting pitching. Charleston finished well behind the other three in the standings, but their 844 runs scored demonstrate that the offense already gives them a foundation on which to build.

Every team has a legitimate storyline entering the new season.

The question is whether Austin can defend its title—or whether one of its three rivals is ready to take the next step.

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🏆 AUSTIN CELTICS

Season 79: 86-76, 1st Place

Runs Scored: 848
Runs Allowed: 845
Expected Winning Percentage: .502
Season 80 Player Salaries: $109.8 million

Austin won the AL South last season, but the Celtics enter Season 80 with one of the more interesting profiles in the division.

They won 86 games despite allowing nearly as many runs as they scored. Their +3 run differential was modest for a division champion, and their expected winning percentage of .502 was considerably lower than their actual .531 mark.

That does not mean Austin's division title was a fluke. It does, however, mean the Celtics will have to prove that Season 79 was the beginning of something sustainable rather than the high end of their possible range.

Fortunately for Austin, there is plenty of offensive talent on this roster.

The Austin offense

The Celtics scored 848 runs last season, and their lineup featured several players capable of carrying an offense.

Guillermo Chantres

Chantres was arguably Austin's most complete hitter in Season 79.

He hit:

• .320 AVG
• 22 HR
• 85 RBI
• 93 runs scored
• .378 OBP
• .518 SLG
• .896 OPS

Chantres combined batting average, power, and on-base ability better than almost anyone else on the club. A .320 average is difficult to count on repeating exactly, but he established himself as one of the central pieces of the Austin lineup.

If he remains anywhere near that level, the Celtics have a legitimate middle-of-the-order anchor.

Yasmani Ontiveros

Ontiveros was another major contributor, producing:

• .293 AVG
• 20 HR
• 90 RBI
• .369 OBP
• .827 OPS

His combination of batting average and on-base ability gave Austin another dependable offensive weapon.

The biggest question surrounding Ontiveros is simply how much he plays. He appeared in 122 games and recorded 485 at-bats due to his durability as a catcher.

Riku Martin

Martin quietly put together an excellent all-around season:

• .269 AVG
• 20 HR
• 86 RBI
• 87 runs
• 29 stolen bases
• .777 OPS

Martin's value comes from his versatility. He supplied power, speed, and solid production across nearly every offensive category.

He is the type of player who may not lead the league in a single category but contributes to winning in several different ways.

Jeremi Ebert

Ebert was one of Austin's most dynamic players.

In Season 79, he recorded:

• 27 HR
• 84 RBI
• 95 runs
• 39 stolen bases
• .785 OPS

The batting average was just .253, and his .311 OBP leaves room for improvement, but the combination of power and speed is extremely valuable.

A 27-homer, 39-steal season is difficult to replace.

If Ebert can improve his on-base percentage even modestly, he could become one of the division's most dangerous offensive players.

Maikel Arroyo

Arroyo provided another strong offensive season:

• .289 AVG
• 18 HR
• 61 RBI
• .814 OPS

He produced excellent results in only 405 at-bats.

Austin's lineup does not rely on one or two players. That may be its greatest offensive strength. Several hitters can produce at an above-average level, which makes the Celtics difficult to pitch around.

Benny Banks and Harold Barker

Banks contributed:

• 97 runs
• 28 stolen bases
• .343 OBP

Barker added:

• 18 HR
• 81 RBI

Neither player was necessarily the offensive centerpiece of the team, but both helped give Austin the lineup depth necessary to score 848 runs.

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The Austin rotation

This is where Austin becomes more difficult to evaluate.

The offense was clearly productive, but the pitching staff allowed 845 runs, nearly matching the team's offensive output.

Aramis Mendoza

Mendoza went:

• 12-11
• 4.68 ERA
• 186.2 IP
• 125 strikeouts

He provided important innings but was not a dominant frontline starter.

Yasiel Sosa

Sosa posted:

• 11-8
• 5.01 ERA
• 151 innings

Again, the workload was useful, but the results indicate Austin will need improvement from its starting staff.

Larry Leiter

Leiter threw the most innings on the staff among the pitchers highlighted here:

• 239.1 IP
• 10-19 record
• 5.53 ERA

The 239 innings represent tremendous durability, but the results were difficult.

Austin's starting pitching has a straightforward challenge entering Season 80: convert more innings into quality innings.

The Celtics do not necessarily need a complete transformation from their rotation. With the offense they already possess, even moderate improvement from the pitching staff could make them significantly more dangerous.

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Austin's outlook

Austin deserves respect as the defending division champion.

But the Celtics may be the team under the most pressure to repeat because their underlying numbers suggest that they were not clearly superior to Santa Fe or Texas.

Their offense gives them a legitimate chance to win the division again.

Their pitching determines whether they can become something more than a team fighting for 85 wins.

Biggest Strength

Lineup depth. Austin has multiple hitters capable of producing 20-plus home runs while also receiving contributions from players with speed and on-base ability.

Biggest Question

Can the pitching staff improve enough to support the offense?

Season 80 Outlook

Contender. Austin is the defending champion, but the division may be even more difficult this season.

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🌵 SANTA FE TRAIL

Season 79: 83-79, 2nd Place

Runs Scored: 823
Runs Allowed: 806
Expected Winning Percentage: .510
Season 80 Player Salaries: $117.5 million

Santa Fe narrowly missed the division title last season, finishing just three games behind Austin.

The Trail were also one of the most active teams in the offseason.

They added three significant Type A free agents:

• Carlos Pena, formerly of Kansas City
• Matty Guerrero, formerly of Salem
• Felipe Berrios, formerly of New York

That level of offseason activity immediately changes the conversation around the AL South.

Santa Fe was already competitive.

Now the Trail are attempting to turn an 83-win team into a legitimate championship contender.

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The Santa Fe offense

The Trail had a surprisingly deep offensive core last season.

Guillermo Espinoza

Espinoza was one of the division's best hitters.

His Season 79 line included:

• .312 AVG
• 187 hits
• 99 runs
• 90 RBI
• .390 OBP
• .838 OPS

Espinoza does not rely exclusively on home runs.

He gets on base, hits for average, and creates offensive opportunities throughout the lineup.

A player who hits .312 while reaching base at a .390 clip is an extremely valuable foundation piece.

Steven Wilson

Wilson provided the power.

He hit:

• 36 HR
• 103 RBI
• .285 AVG
• .358 OBP
• .878 OPS

Wilson was Santa Fe's premier power hitter and one of the most productive players in the division.

His 36 home runs and 103 RBI give the Trail a legitimate middle-of-the-order force on his way to winning Rookie of the Year.

If the offseason additions improve the lineup around him, Wilson could find himself in even more run-producing situations during Season 80.

Christopher Pulsipher

Pulsipher was another excellent offensive contributor:

• .299 AVG
• 21 HR
• 75 RBI
• .368 OBP
• .851 OPS

He provided a combination of average and power that helped make Santa Fe's lineup deeper than it might initially appear.

With Espinoza, Wilson, and Pulsipher, the Trail already had three hitters who posted an OPS of at least .838.

That is a significant offensive foundation.

Wilkin Carrasco

Carrasco added:

• 28 HR
• 73 RBI
• .786 OPS

The batting average was only .259, but the power was legitimate.

His presence gave Santa Fe another middle-of-the-order threat while also capable of handling SS duties.

Darryl Kipling

Kipling hit:

• .300 AVG
• .371 OBP
• 146 hits

He provided a different type of offensive value.

Rather than relying on home runs, Kipling consistently reached base and helped extend the lineup.

Hainley Lomasney

Lomasney contributed:

• 22 HR
• 86 RBI
• .353 OBP
• .778 OPS

Henry Yearwood

Yearwood added:

• 20 HR
• 85 RBI
• .349 OBP

Neither player was quite as productive as Wilson or Espinoza, but their presence illustrates Santa Fe's overall depth.

The Trail did not enter the offseason because they lacked offensive talent.

They entered it looking to turn a good lineup into a potentially elite one.

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The Santa Fe pitching staff

Santa Fe's pitching was solid enough to support an 83-win season but did not dominate.

Graham Ross

Ross went:

• 14-11
• 4.00 ERA
• 225 IP
• 160 strikeouts

He was one of the most important pitchers on the staff.

A 14-win season with a 4.00 ERA and 225 innings represents dependable frontline production.

Bill Hooper

Hooper posted:

• 7-9
• 3.77 ERA
• 169.1 IP

His win-loss record does not necessarily reflect his effectiveness.

A 3.77 ERA was one of the stronger numbers among the starting pitchers on the club.

Ivy Bass

Bass contributed in multiple roles:

• 9-11
• 4 saves
• 3.80 ERA
• 170.2 IP

That versatility is valuable over a 162-game season.

Todd Valentine

Valentine added:

• 11-12
• 176.2 IP
• 4.69 ERA

The Trail have several pitchers capable of carrying significant workloads.

The question is whether the staff can improve from solid to championship caliber.

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The new additions

This is where Santa Fe may have changed the division race.

Carlos Pena

Pena arrives from Kansas City as a Type A free agent signing.

The Trail are hoping to squeeze two more years out of the veteran 38 year old reliever who has a career 3.36 ERA and 232 saves although he is coming off a season where his ERA was the highest (3.98) it has been since season 72. If he can avoid decline, he can still be a valuable contributor to Santa Fe's bullpen.

Matty Guerrero

Guerrero comes over from Salem as one of the biggest free agent signings of the offseason signing a 5 year deal worth $15 million per season.

Guerrero is a high stamina, low durability pitcher making his usage tricky. Salem routinely used him as a reliever where he typically would throw between 110-120 innings per season. He was for the most part excellent there, posting a 2.98 ERA over 7 seasons.

It will be interesting to see how the Trail use Guerrero, but he should be a huge help to their pitching staff however he gets used.

Felipe Berrios

Berrios arrives from New York excited for the offensive ballpark in Santa Fe after spending seasons in New York and Portland's more pitcher friendly ballpark. He has a career 0.732 OPS and plays decently well at 3B. His offensive should see an uptick and he should further help solidify a deep lineup.

Santa Fe is clearly not approaching Season 80 as a team hoping to sneak into the postseason.

The Trail are trying to win now.

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Santa Fe's outlook

There may not be a more fascinating team in the division.

The Trail were already competitive. They already had an offense featuring Espinoza, Wilson, Pulsipher, Carrasco, Kipling, and others.

Then they went out and added three Type A free agents.

That makes Santa Fe one of the division's most obvious candidates for improvement.

Biggest Strength

Offensive depth and offseason ambition.

Biggest Question

Will the free-agent additions push Santa Fe over the top, or will the pitching staff remain the limiting factor?

Season 80 Outlook

Strong contender. Santa Fe may have the highest ceiling of any team in the AL South.

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⚡ TEXAS TWEAKERS

Season 79: 82-80, 3rd Place

Runs Scored: 757
Runs Allowed: 747
Expected Winning Percentage: .506
Season 80 Player Salaries: $58.7 million

Texas finished only four games behind Austin, but this was a disappointment after winning 108 games the season prior and winning the World Series in Season 77.

Despite finishing third, the Tweakers were firmly part of the division race.

Their biggest challenge entering Season 80 is that they lost two important players during free agency:

• Billy Kennedy, who signed with Kansas City
• Rodrigo Troncoso, who signed with Seattle

The loss of Kennedy, in particular, could have a significant impact on the pitching staff.

Texas currently only has 18 players on their ML roster, so it will be interesting to see what moves they make to bolster the big league club.

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The Texas offense

Texas featured several outstanding offensive players in Season 79.

Yasmany Chacin

Chacin was the biggest star.

He produced:

• .293 AVG
• 42 HR
• 99 RBI
• .361 OBP
• .561 SLG
• .922 OPS

That is superstar production.

Chacin was one of the most dangerous hitters in the entire league.

The 2x MVP's ability to hit for average while also producing 42 home runs makes him the centerpiece of the Texas lineup.

Addison DeVoss

DeVoss delivered another outstanding season:

• .293 AVG
• 34 HR
• 93 RBI
• 101 runs
• .879 OPS

Texas had a legitimate one-two punch in DeVoss and Chacin.

Together, they combined for:

• 76 home runs
• 192 RBI

That type of production gives Texas the ability to win games even when the rest of the lineup is not at its best.

Al Wunsch

Wunsch was another excellent contributor:

• .295 AVG
• 29 HR
• 80 RBI
• .850 OPS

A player hitting nearly .300 with 29 home runs would be the centerpiece of many teams.

On Texas, he was another major weapon.

Vitas Surtain

Surtain added:

• 40 HR
• 89 RBI
• .847 OPS

The batting average was only .270, and the strikeouts were high, but the power was undeniable.

Texas had four hitters who reached at least 29 home runs:

• Chacin: 42
• Surtain: 40
• DeVoss: 34
• Wunsch: 29

That is enormous power production and a big reason why Texas finished 3rd in HRs last season with 260.

Sammy Lee

Lee provided a different offensive profile:

• .278 AVG
• 21 HR
• 90 runs
• .772 OPS

He helped create additional depth around the team's primary sluggers.

Timothy Winn

Winn added:

• .291 AVG
• 18 HR
• 70 RBI
• .808 OPS

Texas did not simply rely on home runs.

Several players also hit for average, giving the lineup more balance than the raw power totals might suggest.

Orlando Macias is expected to be called up about 50 games into the season. He has spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors, playing in 34 games. His OBP hasn't been great (0.295) but he would add another tremendous power bat, as he has a SLG % of 0.646 averaging a HR per every 9 ABs.

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The Texas pitching staff

The biggest story is the departure of Billy Kennedy.

Rick Edwards

Edwards is now the obvious leader of the rotation.

His Season 79 numbers were solid albeit a little bit down from his Season 78 Cy Young performance:

• 18-10
• 244.1 IP
• 220 strikeouts
• 3.83 ERA

He provided Texas with a legitimate workhorse.

The 244 innings and 220 strikeouts represent frontline production.

Yovani Ethier

Ethier may have actually been the most effective starter on a rate basis.

He posted:

• 14-11
• 3.43 ERA
• 191.1 IP
• 166 strikeouts
• 1.19 WHIP

Those are excellent numbers.

Edwards provided volume, but Ethier was extremely effective when on the mound.

Together, the two give Texas a strong foundation.

Billy Kennedy — Departure

Kennedy's Season 79 numbers were:

• 10-8
• 226.1 IP
• 158 strikeouts
• 4.22 ERA

He may not have been the most dominant pitcher in the rotation, but replacing 226 innings is a major challenge.

That is one of the most important offseason losses in the entire division.

Dave Perez

Perez went:

• 13-14
• 189.2 IP
• 4.75 ERA

The workload was valuable, but the performance was inconsistent.

Texas will need someone to take a larger role behind Edwards and Ethier. They have a fantastic prospect in 21 year old Venezuelan Eliezer Sosa, but he is expected so spend most of the season in AAA.

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Texas's outlook

Texas may be the most difficult team to project.

The offensive foundation is excellent.

Chacin, DeVoss, Wunsch, and Surtain give the Tweakers enormous power potential.

Edwards and Ethier provide two strong starting pitchers.

But the loss of Kennedy creates a major hole.

Texas also enters the season with one of the lower player payrolls in the division, which could potentially provide flexibility for additional moves. Who they decide so sign or call up could ultimately make the difference in whether Texas ends up missing the playoffs or regaining their championship form.

Biggest Strength

Star power. Few teams in the division can match Texas's combination of middle-of-the-order power and top-of-the-rotation talent.

Biggest Question

Who fills out this roster?

Season 80 Outlook

Contender, but with questions. Texas has enough talent to win the division, but replacing the departed pitching will be essential.

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🌵 CHARLESTON MEZCALS

Season 79: 68-94, 4th Place

Runs Scored: 844
Runs Allowed: 920
Expected Winning Percentage: .458
Season 80 Player Salaries: $113.9 million
Max Prospect Budget: $16.9 million

Charleston's record was disappointing.

Its offense was not.

The Mezcals scored 844 runs, which was nearly identical to Austin's total of 848 and actually exceeded Santa Fe's 823.

The problem was the pitching staff.

Charleston allowed 920 runs, the most in the division.

That created one of the clearest formulas for improvement anywhere in the league:

Keep scoring. Stop allowing so many runs.

The offseason additions suggest Charleston understands that.

The Mezcals signed:

• Ed Hannahan from Montreal
• Branch Scelfo from Anaheim

Both additions came at a significant cost and represent an attempt to improve a roster that finished well behind the rest of the division.

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The Charleston offense

This lineup was much better than the 68-win record might suggest.

Josh Mitre

Mitre was the offensive star.

He produced:

• .304 AVG
• 39 HR
• 114 RBI
• .373 OBP
• .559 SLG
• .932 OPS

Those are elite numbers and were why he won the Silver Slugger at Catcher.

Mitre was one of the best hitters in the league and gives Charleston a legitimate franchise cornerstone.

Ismael Oviedo

Oviedo may have been equally important.

He hit:

• .312 AVG
• .441 OBP
• 16 HR
• 66 RBI
• .919 OPS

The .441 on-base percentage stands out immediately.

Oviedo was a table setter and offensive catalyst.

Players who consistently reach base at that level make everyone around them better.

Omar Baez

Baez added:

• 36 HR
• 92 RBI
• .279 AVG
• .863 OPS

Along with Mitre, Baez gave Charleston two 30-plus home-run hitters.

Daniel Manning

Manning contributed:

• .288 AVG
• 22 HR
• 89 RBI
• .359 OBP
• .815 OPS

Another productive season.

Charleston's offensive depth was obvious.

Victor Cruz

Cruz added:

• 26 HR
• 88 RBI
• 98 runs
• 20 stolen bases

The batting average was .257, but he contributed in multiple categories.

Connie De Vries

De Vries produced:

• 24 HR
• 71 RBI
• 21 stolen bases

Again, the batting average was not particularly high, but the power-speed combination created value.

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The Dilson Hernandez departure

Hernandez hit:

• 0.229 AVG
• 9 HR
• 53 RBI
• 15 SBs

His overall production was modest compared with some of Charleston's other hitters, but he is now gone after signing with Cuba.

The Mezcals will need to replace his roster spot, but his departure is unlikely to be the central factor determining Charleston's season.

The pitching improvements will matter far more.

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The Charleston pitching staff

This is where the Mezcals need improvement.

Lisalverto Moreno

Moreno was arguably the most effective regular starter.

He went:

• 11-11
• 4.23 ERA
• 168 IP

His ERA was not dominant, but he was a stabilizing presence.

Hector Padilla

Padilla posted:

• 8-10
• 4.47 ERA
• 169 IP

Humberto Alvarez - Departed

Alvarez went:

• 7-10
• 4.67 ERA
• 181.1 IP

Asdrubal Owen

Owen recorded:

• 9-11
• 5.38 ERA
• 167.1 IP

The overall picture is clear.

Charleston had innings.

What it lacked was consistently effective innings.

The Mezcals need the rotation to improve substantially.

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The offseason additions

Ed Hannahan

Charleston signed Hannahan away from Montreal as a Type A free agent.

Hannahan was the NL Silver Slugger in LF last season, finishing with 32 HRs, 92 RBIs and a 0.908 OPS. He should provide another much needed bat to this lineup.

Branch Scelfo

Scelfo arrives from Anaheim, another Type A signing to help improve their pitching staff.

He isn't a huge innings eater, pitching only 94 innings last season, but he is excellent when he is on the mound with his career 3.30 ERA.

Duffy Vernon

Vernon also arrives from Anaheim, coming off a serious season-ending injury. He was excellent before the injury, going 17-4 with a 2.52 ERA. If he can recover close to that level then Charleston will have a bargain on their hands.

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Charleston's outlook

The Mezcals may have the widest possible range of outcomes in the division.

The offense already looks capable of competing.

Mitre, Oviedo, Baez, Manning, Cruz, and De Vries provide an impressive collection of hitters.

The team scored 844 runs.

The problem was allowing 920.

If the pitching staff improves meaningfully, Charleston could make a major jump.

If it does not, the Mezcals may once again find themselves watching the division race from the outside.

Biggest Strength

Offense. Charleston has enough offensive talent to compete with anyone in the division.

Biggest Question

Can the pitching improve?

Season 80 Outlook

Dark horse. The Mezcals probably need the biggest improvement of any team in the division, but they also have an obvious path toward becoming much more competitive.

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THE OFFSEASON THAT COULD CHANGE THE DIVISION

The AL South was competitive last season.

The offseason may have made it even more interesting.

Santa Fe got aggressive

The Trail added three Type A free agents:

• Carlos Pena
• Matty Guerrero
• Felipe Berrios

No team in the division did more to improve its established roster.

Texas lost an important starter

Billy Kennedy's departure creates a significant hole in the rotation.

Replacing 226.1 innings will not be easy.

Charleston spent to improve

Ed Hannahan and Branch Scelfo represent major investments in a team that desperately needed to improve after a 68-win season.

Austin stayed on top—for now

The Celtics are still the defending division champions.

But they enter the season knowing that the teams behind them are not standing still.

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THE BIGGEST STORYLINES

1. Can Austin repeat?

The Celtics won the division, but their underlying numbers were not overwhelming.

They will need another strong offensive season and better pitching to remain on top.

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2. Did Santa Fe win the offseason?

The Trail were already competitive.

Adding three Type A free agents could make them the most improved team in the division.

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3. Can Texas overcome its pitching losses?

The offense remains extremely dangerous.

But losing Billy Kennedy puts additional pressure on Rick Edwards, Yovani Ethier, and the rest of the rotation.

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4. Is Charleston ready for a major jump?

The Mezcals scored enough runs to compete.

Their entire season may come down to whether the pitching staff can finally catch up with the offense.

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PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

🥇 1. Santa Fe Trail

The offseason additions are difficult to ignore.

Santa Fe already had a strong offensive foundation featuring Guillermo Espinoza, Steven Wilson, Christopher Pulsipher, and several other productive hitters.

Adding Carlos Pena, Matty Guerrero, and Felipe Berrios gives the Trail perhaps the deepest collection of talent in the division.

Projected record: 88-74

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🥈 2. Austin Celtics

The defending champions remain dangerous.

Guillermo Chantres, Yasmani Ontiveros, Riku Martin, Jeremi Ebert, and Maikel Arroyo provide a strong offensive core.

But the pitching staff needs improvement.

Projected record: 86-76

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🥉 3. Texas Tweakers

Texas has enough talent to win the division.

Yasmany Chacin, Addison DeVoss, Al Wunsch, and Vitas Surtain form one of the division's most dangerous groups of power hitters.

Rick Edwards and Yovani Ethier give them a strong pitching foundation.

But the loss of Billy Kennedy could prove costly.

Projected record: 84-78

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4. Charleston Mezcals

Charleston could be considerably better than its projected finish.

The offense is legitimate.

Josh Mitre and Ismael Oviedo were outstanding last season, while Omar Baez, Daniel Manning, Victor Cruz, and Connie De Vries provide additional depth.

The pitching remains the question.

If the offseason additions help significantly and the rotation improves, Charleston could challenge the teams ahead of it.

Projected record: 74-88

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FINAL THOUGHTS

The AL South enters Season 80 as a division without an obvious runaway favorite.

Austin is the defending champion.

Santa Fe may have had the best offseason.

Texas has some of the division's biggest stars.

Charleston has an offense capable of making a major leap if its pitching improves.

The difference between these teams may ultimately be relatively small.

And after a Season 79 race in which only four games separated first place from third, this division has every reason to believe it could produce another close finish.

The AL South may not have the league's biggest powerhouse—but it may have one of its most compelling races.