The Story of the Series
This isn't the matchup anyone predicted when October began.
The National League's top two seeds—Vancouver (107 wins) and Montreal (95 wins)—are both gone.
In their place stand two teams that earned every bit of their opportunity.
Kansas City arrives as the giant killer, having eliminated both a division champion and the league's best team.
Wichita arrives as arguably the hottest team in baseball, winning six of its last eight postseason games and dismantling Montreal in convincing fashion.
Unlike the ALCS, where two 100-win clubs collided, this NLCS feels much more unpredictable.
Neither team is carrying the burden of expectations anymore.
Instead, both clubs enter believing they can finish an improbable October run.
Road to the NLCS
#5 Kansas City Royals (91-71)
Kansas City began October by eliminating AL East champion Boston in the Play-In Series, taking the series three games to one. Their reward? A showdown with the National League's top seed and 107-win Vancouver Fighting Skeletons.
Rather than being intimidated, the Royals delivered arguably the biggest upset of the postseason.
After falling behind 2-0, Kansas City won the final three games, including the decisive Game 5 on Vancouver's home field, knocking out the league's best regular-season team.
Play-In Series: defeated #4 Boston, 3-1
NLDS: defeated #1 Vancouver, 3-2
#3 Wichita Evil Sheep (93-69)
If Kansas City's run has been dramatic, Wichita's has been dominant.
The Evil Sheep survived a hard-fought five-game Play-In Series against Montgomery before running into a Montreal club that won 95 games and featured one of baseball's deepest pitching staffs.
Instead of merely advancing, Wichita completely overwhelmed the Expos.
The Evil Sheep swept Montreal in three straight games, becoming the first team this postseason to eliminate a division champion without losing a game.
Play-In Series: defeated #6 Montgomery, 3-2
NLDS: swept #2 Montreal, 3-0
What are some the top storylines entering the NLCS?
Giant Killers
Neither of these clubs was supposed to be here.
Kansas City entered as the #5 seed and immediately eliminated division champion Boston before knocking off 107-win Vancouver, the National League's best team.
Wichita, the #3 seed, had to survive a grueling five-game Play-In Series against Montgomery before completely dismantling 95-win Montreal with a shocking three-game sweep.
The NL's top two seeds are gone, leaving two teams that earned every step of their postseason run.
Can Wichita's Pitching Stay This Hot?
This is probably the biggest baseball storyline.
During the regular season Wichita's pitching was very good (3.86 ERA).
In October it's become dominant.
- 2.54 postseason ERA
- Just 20 earned runs allowed in eight games
- Three straight wins over Montreal
- Asher Collier, Justin Richard and the bullpen have all elevated their games.
The question is simple:
Is this a two-week hot streak, or has Wichita found another gear?
Kansas City's Balanced Attack vs Wichita's Home Run Power
These offenses couldn't be more different.
Kansas City has scored by putting the ball in play.
- .287 playoff average
- Several hitters producing
- Patient lineup
- Pressure throughout the order
Wichita has been much less consistent.
They're hitting only .231 as a team...
...yet they've slugged 15 home runs in eight games.
One club manufactures offense.
The other changes games with one swing.
Dave Long vs Everybody
Sometimes one player becomes the story.
Wichita's Dave Long has been ridiculous.
- 6 HR
- 10 RBI
- 1.454 OPS
Montreal simply couldn't keep him in the ballpark.
Kansas City now has to figure out whether to attack him or pitch around him.
If he stays hot, he could carry Wichita to the World Series almost by himself.
Where is Ebenezer Cuyler?
On the opposite side...
Kansas City's biggest star hasn't arrived yet.
Regular season:
- 35 HR
- .924 OPS
Playoffs:
- .167 average
- No home runs
The scary part for Wichita is that Kansas City has reached the NLCS without getting much from one of its MVP-caliber bats.
If Cuyler wakes up...
...the Royals become a much more dangerous offense.
Battle-Tested vs Rested
Kansas City has lived on the edge.
- Eliminated Boston
- Went the full five games against Vancouver
- Won three elimination-style games
Wichita also survived a five-game opening round, but then cruised through Montreal with a sweep.
Which matters more?
Kansas City's experience in pressure games?
Or Wichita's fresher pitching staff?
Which Rotation Holds Up?
This could become the defining strategic battle.
Kansas City appears set with:
- Paulie Terry
- Arthur Pierre
- Willie Iglesias
- Cookie Suzuki
Wichita only has three starters lined up.
Do they:
- trust a fourth starter,
- use a bullpen game,
- or bring Orlando Fernandez back on short rest?
That decision could determine Games 6 and 7.
The Cinderella Pennant
Neither franchise has been viewed as the National League favorite all season.
Vancouver looked like the league's juggernaut.
Montreal quietly won 95 games.
Boston was the hottest team entering October.
Yet none of them remain.
One of Kansas City or Wichita will become an unlikely National League champion.
Momentum vs Confidence
Kansas City's confidence comes from who they've beaten.
They've already proven they can eliminate the league's best team.
Wichita's momentum comes from how they've won.
A dominant sweep of Montreal has them looking like the hottest club in baseball.
Which is more important in October?
My favorite overarching storyline
A few things immediately stand out.
- Kansas City is the more balanced club. They finished 11th in runs scored (751) but 7th in ERA (3.61). Their lineup isn't as deep as Wichita's, but they're getting excellent postseason production from Yoshinori Johjima (1.038 OPS), Michael Abe (.938 OPS), Antonio Porter (.924 OPS), and Herb Reddick (.799 OPS). The concern is that regular season star Ebenezer Cuyler (.924 OPS, 26 HR) has gone just 5-for-30 (.167) this postseason.
- Wichita has been carried by pitching. Their team ERA is an outstanding 2.54 through eight playoff games, and they've allowed just 20 earned runs in 71 innings. Asher Collier has been brilliant (1.59 ERA), Justin Richard has been a revelation (9 scoreless innings, 11 strikeouts), and the bullpen has been nearly flawless.
- Offensively, Wichita has been feast-or-famine. They have only a .231 batting average, but they've hit 15 home runs in eight games, led by Dave Long's unbelievable postseason (6 HR, 1.454 OPS). Norman Zimmermann has chipped in three homers, while Carmen Diaz has been a steady table-setter.
I also think there are some really interesting matchup angles:
Kansas City's Advantages
- More complete offensive lineup from top to bottom.
- Deeper four-man rotation with Paulie Terry, Arthur Pierre, Willie Iglesias, and Cookie Suzuki.
- Better postseason contact (.287 team average vs .231).
- Already proved they can win a road series against the league's best team.
Wichita's Advantages
- Considerably better bullpen performance so far.
- Dave Long is the hottest hitter remaining in the National League.
- Orlando Fernandez gives them the ace advantage in Game 1.
- Momentum from sweeping Montreal while Kansas City had to survive five games against Vancouver.
X-Factors
Kansas City: Ebenezer Cuyler
The Royals' biggest bat has been unusually quiet. If the 35-home run slugger starts driving the baseball again, Kansas City's offense becomes much more dangerous.
Wichita: Dave Long
He's been the most explosive hitter of the postseason. Six home runs in eight games can swing a series almost by himself.
The Pitching Matchup
This series feels much different than the ALCS.
The ALCS featured two offensive juggernauts with elite front-line starters.
The NLCS looks like a battle of pitching staffs.
Kansas City finished with a 3.61 ERA during the regular season, Wichita at 3.86, but Wichita has taken its pitching to another level in October with a 2.54 postseason ERA. Kansas City has been solid at 3.92, though not quite as dominant.
The opening games should be fascinating:
- Game 1: Paulie Terry (13-12, 3.05 ERA) vs. Orlando Fernandez (17-4, 3.31 ERA)
- Game 2: Arthur Pierre (3.08 ERA) vs. Justin Richard (4.05 regular season, scoreless this postseason)
- Game 3: Willie Iglesias (3.02 ERA) vs. Asher Collier (4.29 regular season, 1.59 postseason)
After that, Wichita's plans become uncertain. Without a confirmed fourth starter, manager grapeape may either turn to Babe Dipoto, Joe Tabaka, or Harold Lennon, or ask Orlando Fernandez and the rest of the rotation to work on short rest.
ChatGPT's Prediction
Unlike the ALCS, where Fresno entered with a slight edge on paper, this matchup feels almost perfectly even.
Kansas City has already knocked off the National League's No. 1 seed and has shown it can win close games against elite competition. Wichita, meanwhile, has looked like the hottest club in the league, overpowering Montreal with dominant pitching and timely home runs.
The deciding factor may be which offense breaks through first. Kansas City is more consistent from one through eight, while Wichita relies more heavily on the long ball. If the series becomes a low-scoring grind, the Evil Sheep's bullpen and current pitching form give them a slight edge. If the Royals can continue putting runners on base and finally get Ebenezer Cuyler going, they have enough balance to reach the World Series.
Prediction: Wichita defeats Kansas City in 7 games.
It wouldn't be surprising if this series goes the distance. Kansas City has already proven it can survive elimination games, while Wichita has shown it can dominate quality opponents. After an October full of surprises, the National League pennant feels destined to be decided in one final winner-take-all showdown.
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